I just returned from a brief trip home to India. I had heard from some that signs of recession were evident in India, others claimed the recession had really not hit India hard. Needless to say I was on the lookout for signs that would indicate recession (or not).
December is music season in Chennai, India. Every day there are several concerts, lecture demonstrations etc. attended by music enthusiasts from all over the globe. This year I expected to see the concert halls a little less full, perhaps with the more expensive seats being empty. But not a chance. Every hall was packed to capacity, especially when someone famous was performing. People stayed in hotels located close to the music halls and rental cars were impossible to get. Restaurants were crowded - I was unable to get a reservation for lunch at Taj Coromandel (one of the most expensive hotels in Chennai). Recession? Not. In fact, looking at all the cars lined up outside hotels, music halls, cinema theaters etc. I was beginning to think just the opposite.
I was curious to see how the IT Sector was doing so I spoke to some of my friends in the field. Business was still booming and most of the IT professionals I knew were still keeping late hours, in spite of the holiday season. As for entrepreneurs - some I knew were traveling to exotic locations in India to attend various conferences on entrepreneurship!
So was there any particular sector or segment of people that were affected by the recession? Maybe, but I sure could not find any evidence of it. I had a theory that the lower economic strata might be affected but after several conversations with drivers and maid I dismissed that theory. Maids were in short supply in the cities and drivers were demanding way more in wages than ever before.
However, things are not that rosy in India. Unfortunately, the big problems in the country are self-created. They are not related to economic recession. The large state of Andhra Pradesh is slowly shutting down for business as chaos is spreading in the state due to some wanting to split the state into two separate states. IT companies that chose Hyderabad are rethinking their investments and the city has been declared unsafe for travel. I can only imagine the repercussions of this - a few months down the road I think the state will face economic problems and worldwide recession cannot be blamed for it. I hope I am wrong and I hope things improve in Andhra Pradesh.
